The Slate
snapshot · reviewed lines
| Matchup | Kickoff | Spread · Total |
|---|---|---|
| GB @ DET | Thu 1:00 | DET -3 · 48 |
| GB @ DET: DET -3 with a 48 total gives the opener real scoring weight. | ||
| KC @ DAL | Thu 4:30 | KC -3 · 53.5 |
| KC @ DAL: KC -3 and a 53.5 total make this the marquee scoring spot. | ||
| CIN @ BAL | Thu 8:20 | BAL -7.5 · 52.5 |
| CIN @ BAL: BAL -7.5 pairs a big edge with a 52.5 total. | ||
| CHI @ PHI | Fri 3:00 | PHI -7 · 43.5 |
| CHI @ PHI: PHI -7, but the 43.5 total keeps the ceiling contained. | ||
| ARI @ TB | Sun 1:00 | TB -4 · 44.5 |
| ARI @ TB: TB -4 in a game carrying a 44.5 total. | ||
| ATL @ NYJ | Sun 1:00 | ATL -3 · 38.5 |
| ATL @ NYJ: ATL -3 and a 38.5 total point to a tight, lower-scoring game. | ||
| HOU @ IND | Sun 1:00 | IND -3 · 44.5 |
| HOU @ IND: IND -3 in another narrow game with a 44.5 total. | ||
| JAX @ TEN | Sun 1:00 | JAX -6.5 · 42.5 |
| JAX @ TEN: JAX -6.5 creates separation around a 42.5 total. | ||
| LAR @ CAR | Sun 1:00 | LAR -10 · 45 |
| LAR @ CAR: LAR -10 is one of the slate’s widest spreads at 45. | ||
| NO @ MIA | Sun 1:00 | MIA -5.5 · 41.5 |
| NO @ MIA: MIA -5.5 with a 41.5 total sets a modest scoring range. | ||
| SF @ CLE | Sun 1:00 | SF -5 · 35 |
| SF @ CLE: The 35 total is the slate’s lowest, with SF -5. | ||
| MIN @ SEA | Sun 4:05 | SEA -12 · 42 |
| MIN @ SEA: SEA -12 is the largest favorite on a 42 total. | ||
| BUF @ PIT | Sun 4:25 | BUF -3 · 45 |
| BUF @ PIT: BUF -3 keeps this 45-total game among the tight matchups. | ||
| LV @ LAC | Sun 4:25 | LAC -10 · 40.5 |
| LV @ LAC: LAC -10 stands out against a 40.5 total. | ||
| DEN @ WSH | Sun 8:20 | DEN -6 · 43 |
| DEN @ WSH: DEN -6 in a Sunday night game with a 43 total. | ||
| NYG @ NE | Mon 8:15 | NE -7 · 47.5 |
| NYG @ NE: NE -7 gives Monday a 47.5 total and scoring appeal. | ||
Around the Slate
the week, read closely
The marquee ceiling belongs to KC @ DAL, where KC -3 meets a 53.5 total; CIN @ BAL is close behind at 52.5 with BAL -7.5. GB @ DET adds a 48 total to the opening window, keeping the early schedule anchored by bigger scoring expectations.
The market can barely split the week: five games sit inside three points, while the league average total is 44.2 after moving from 45.5 across the last 8 weeks. Big favorites such as LAR -10, SEA -12 and LAC -10 create a different shape, and the full picture lives in the paid edition, Bleachers.
The Read
the week's one big trend
Watson’s Role Is Taking Over
| 40% |
▁▃▅█
last 4 weeks
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Christian Watson’s involvement has climbed four straight weeks, and the shift is showing up in where Green Bay is looking. He now owns 40% of the Packers’ air yards, giving him a substantial downfield role, while his 10% share of red-zone targets shows the scoring-area work is arriving too. Against Detroit, watch whether that consolidated role survives a marquee divisional matchup; if it does, Watson’s opportunity is becoming a central part of the offense.
The Featured Call
pass yds
Matthew Stafford LAR · vs CAR
| Market250.8 | Ours280.8 | Range159.2–411.1 |
Matthew Stafford’s market is 250.8 passing yards against CAR, while our number is 280.8. His weighted recent passing-yard figure is 245, with 261 across the last 8 and 241 across the last 4, and those evidence points pull our number upward by 6.9, 3.6 and 2.9 yards.
| Passing yards | passing yards (weighted recent) 245 — moving our number +6.9 yds. |
| Passing yards | passing yards (last 8) 261 — moving our number +3.6 yds. |
| Passing yards | passing yards (last 4) 241 — moving our number +2.9 yds. |
Our number says 281 pass yds against a market at 250.8 — the lean is over.
Usage Radar
four-week direction
| Player | 4-week direction | Matchup / role signal |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson GB | ▁▃▅█40% of air yards | Christian Watson: 40% of GB air yards and 10% of red-zone targets; his downfield role is expanding. |
| Michael Wilson ARI | ▁▁▅█36% of air yards | Michael Wilson: 36% of ARI air yards and 14% of red-zone targets; a meaningful receiving role. |
| Troy Franklin DEN | ▁▃▇█52% of air yards | Troy Franklin: 52% of DEN air yards and 47% of red-zone targets; the primary scoring option with 2% of carries. |
| Adonai Mitchell NYJ | ▃▁▄█31% of air yards | Adonai Mitchell: 31% of NYJ air yards and 21% of red-zone targets; involvement is rising. |
| George Kittle SF | ▁▃▅█23% of air yards | George Kittle: 23% of SF air yards and 22% of red-zone targets; a balanced receiving role with 1% of carries. |
Charting Matchup
PFR advanced · NGS weekly
Darren Waller's receiving profile, charted against the league
player vs league median · season to date
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Darren Waller beats the league's typical receiver on 3 of 4 charted measures.
Our read: the charting profile backs the featured number on Darren Waller.
What Bleachers Sees
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The full Board is waiting in Bleachers
Every call with our number, the range, and the reasons — plus Trend vs Price, the annotated slate, and the Film Room session. |
See the full Board |
Last Week
13–27
Bam Knight under 42.5 rush yds — The number closed at 43.3 and he finished with 12. Covered ✓
All 40 calls counted, published or not: 13–27, and we beat the closing number on 38% of them.
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