The Slate
snapshot · reviewed lines
| Matchup | Kickoff | Spread · Total |
|---|---|---|
| LV @ DEN | Thu 8:15 | DEN -9.5 · 42.5 |
| Denver lays -9.5; the 42.5 total keeps this Thursday game modest. | ||
| ATL @ IND | Sun 9:30 | IND -6.5 · 48.5 |
| Indianapolis is -6.5, but Atlanta-Indianapolis carries a 48.5 total. | ||
| BAL @ MIN | Sun 1:00 | BAL -4.5 · 49 |
| Baltimore -4.5 at Minnesota meets a 49 total. | ||
| BUF @ MIA | Sun 1:00 | BUF -7.5 · 50 |
| Buffalo's -7.5 spread sits atop the week's 50 total. | ||
| CLE @ NYJ | Sun 1:00 | CLE -1.5 · 37.5 |
| Cleveland -1.5 makes the 37.5 total feel especially tight. | ||
| JAX @ HOU | Sun 1:00 | PK · 38 |
| Jaguars-Texans is PK, with 38 keeping this one hard to separate. | ||
| NE @ TB | Sun 1:00 | TB -2.5 · 48 |
| Tampa Bay -2.5 hosts a 48 total against New England. | ||
| NO @ CAR | Sun 1:00 | CAR -5.5 · 38.5 |
| Carolina -5.5 faces New Orleans in a 38.5-total game. | ||
| NYG @ CHI | Sun 1:00 | CHI -4.5 · 45 |
| Chicago -4.5 and a 45 total shape Giants-Bears. | ||
| ARI @ SEA | Sun 4:05 | SEA -7 · 44.5 |
| Seattle -7 and a 44.5 total set the shape against Arizona. | ||
| DET @ WSH | Sun 4:25 | DET -7.5 · 48.5 |
| Detroit -7.5 meets Washington with a 48.5 total. | ||
| LAR @ SF | Sun 4:25 | LAR -5.5 · 49.5 |
| The Rams are -5.5 at San Francisco, with a 49.5 total. | ||
| PIT @ LAC | Sun 8:20 | LAC -3 · 45 |
| The Chargers are -3 over Pittsburgh with a 45 total. | ||
| PHI @ GB | Mon 8:15 | PK · 45 |
| Philadelphia-Green Bay is PK, with a 45 total to close the slate. | ||
Around the Slate
the week, read closely
Denver's -9.5 is the week's biggest spread, while Buffalo's -7.5 and Detroit's -7.5 also point to sizeable favorite roles. Buffalo-Miami owns the 50 total, making it the clearest scoring centerpiece on the board.
The market can barely separate five games inside three points, including Jaguars-Texans at PK and Eagles-Packers at PK. Baltimore-Minnesota carries a 49 total, and Rams-49ers reaches 49.5; those game-level tensions are why the full picture lives in the paid edition, Bleachers.
The Read
the week's one big trend
London’s Role Is Taking Over
| 49% |
▁▄▅█
last 4 weeks
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London's involvement has climbed four straight weeks, and the shape of that role matters more than a single box-score spike. He is seeing 33% of Atlanta's red-zone targets and 49% of its air yards, so the Falcons are leaning on him both near the goal line and farther downfield. That combination gives him multiple paths to production against Indianapolis, while the rising role suggests this is becoming an offensive priority rather than a matchup-only blip. Watch whether Atlanta keeps funneling high-value chances his way.
The Featured Call
rush yds
Kimani Vidal LAC · vs PIT
| Market59.5 | Ours37.8 | Range10.1–121.4 |
Kimani Vidal's lead-back role adds 3.3 yards to our number, but carry competition trims it by 4.3, leaving our number at 37.8 rushing yards against the market's 59.5. His 61.8 season rushing figure adds 2.2, yet the backfield split and Pittsburgh matchup keep the forecast below the market.
| Carry competition ratio | carry competition ratio (last 4) 0.26 — moving our number -4.3 yds. |
| Depth position 1 | depth position 1 — moving our number +3.3 yds. |
| Rushing yards | rushing yards (season) 61.8 — moving our number +2.2 yds. |
Our number says 38 rush yds against a market at 59.5 — the lean is under.
Usage Radar
four-week direction
| Player | 4-week direction | Matchup / role signal |
|---|---|---|
| Drake London ATL | ▁▄▅█49% of air yards | Drake London: involvement climbed four straight weeks; 33% red-zone share, 49% air yards, no carries. |
| Tez Johnson TB | ▁▃▅█24% of air yards | Tez Johnson: involvement climbed four straight weeks; 4% red-zone share, 24% air yards, no carries. |
| Darius Slayton NYG | ▁▃▆█39% of air yards | Darius Slayton: involvement climbed four straight weeks; 8% red-zone share, 39% air yards, no carries. |
| Van Jefferson WSH | ▁▂▅█30% of air yards | Van Jefferson: involvement climbed four straight weeks; 12% red-zone share, 30% air yards, no carries. |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | ▁▃▆█49% of air yards | Jaxon Smith-Njigba: involvement climbed four straight weeks; 10% red-zone share, 49% air yards, one carry. |
Charting Matchup
PFR advanced · NGS weekly
Darren Waller's receiving profile, charted against the league
player vs league median · season to date
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Darren Waller beats the league's typical receiver on 3 of 4 charted measures.
Our read: the charting profile backs the featured number on Darren Waller.
What Bleachers Sees
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The full Board is waiting in Bleachers
Every call with our number, the range, and the reasons — plus Trend vs Price, the annotated slate, and the Film Room session. |
See the full Board |
Last Week
26–14
Ray-Ray McCloud under 19.5 rec yds — The number closed at 19.5 and he finished with 5. Covered ✓
All 40 calls counted, published or not: 26–14, and we beat the closing number on 57% of them.
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